A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
